SHFE/LME Price Ratio Deteriorates Rapidly, U.S. Dollar Copper Market Turns Sluggish [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]

February 20, 2025: Today's warehouse warrant prices were $48-60/mt, QP March, with an average price down $1/mt compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices were $50-62/mt, QP March, with an average price down $1/mt compared to the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $4-10/mt, QP March, with an average price down $1/mt compared to the previous trading day. The quotations referenced cargo arrivals in late February and early March.

During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio for the SHFE copper 2503 contract was around -1,100 yuan/mt, while LME copper 3M-Mar was at C$6.43/mt, and the March date to April date spread was around Back $0.13/mt. Due to the sharp structural shift between the LME March and April dates, the SHFE/LME price ratio experienced a rapid price collapse. Suppliers mostly remained in a wait-and-see mode, with few offers for near-month cargoes. It is reported that domestic smelters have already started planning for export activities.

Currently, the spot price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants is $60/mt, mainstream pyro $54/mt, and hydrometallurgical $48/mt; high-quality copper B/L is $62/mt, mainstream pyro around $56/mt, and hydrometallurgical $50/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper is $4-10/mt, with an average price of $7/mt.